Yarabamba
The ground scores well. The variable that decides it doesn't show up from orbit.
Crop suitability, thermal structure and a live El Niño risk model, built from the asset KMLs and public climate and soil data. Nothing here replaces boots on the ground; it tells you where to put them.
chance this summer is not normal
Dec 2026 – Mar 2027 · ENFEN
Dec 2026 – Mar 2027 · ENFEN
The asset
LOTS · OUTLINED BY CROP
Two perils, opposite corners
READING
Flood concentrates up-valley on avocado; heat concentrates down-valley on blueberry, mandarin and Cojal. There is no single mitigation and no single number.
Fundos under this scenario
VALLEY MAP · 23 LOTS OVER THE ANALYSIS LAYERS
FLOOD
AGRICULTURAL SUITABILITY · ONE INDEX, 0–100, RULED BY THE LAW OF THE MINIMUM
Mean score per factor over the crop's own lots, irrigated. The crop's score is the per-pixel minimum, so it sits at or below the lowest bar. ◆ = soil, needs lab validation.
Every factor, every crop
Where each crop's score is decided. Outlined: the binding factor. * Salinity and sodicity are discounted in the final model: the WISE block over San Nicolás is a data artefact pending a field check.
What the 250 m soil read says ◆
Raw values from SoilGrids / WISE over each crop's lots: the pre-management baseline, not the managed state today.
◆ THE BASELINE IS THE SATELLITE'S; THE MANAGED STATE IS THE VISIT'S
Pits and lab chemistry show what management has achieved, and at what cost; the baseline is where the soil tends back to under a heavy-rain season.
CROP MICROCLIMATE · HEAT AND FROST, 30 m
Where the heat lands
Frost: a margin of nine degrees
Coldest night on each crop's lots in twenty years, against the crop's frost line. Reconstruction at 30 m with cold-air pooling; station records would close it.
The thresholds behind every stress line
Horticultural literature ranges for the varieties grown here, until the varieties and rootstocks are named on site. Where damage stops being a bad campaign (yield) and becomes a write-down (plants).
RISK ASSESSMENT PER CROP · EL NIÑO 2026-27
One property, two perils, pulling in opposite directions.
Flood concentrates up-valley on avocado; heat concentrates down-valley on blueberry and mandarin. Each crop is priced against the same three probability tiers, so the exposures can be compared, and the loss bands argued with rather than accepted.
Crop × tier
Affected hectares per probability tier, and indicative loss bands ◆. The highlighted column is the scenario lens; the last column weights all three tiers by their ENFEN probability (derived).
The valley, coast to up-valley
Where we'd walk
Field targeting, from the data. Click a fundo to open it on the map.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU · CLIMATE RISK INTO UNDERWRITING SECURITY
A continuous physical data stream becomes a defined, auditable trigger.
A process built for an insurer, offered here as an architecture for your own structures. The chain does not care what sits at the end of it: a reserve, a covenant, an advance rate. The choice of structure is made with you, and no instrument is being proposed here.
Trigger
Debt-service coverage · same years
The structure responds in the period the index fires. Unstructured, the bad year is unbounded; climate-indexed, it costs a little in normal years and has a floor in trigger years.
Illustrative: only the timing (which years fire) comes from the data above. Coverage levels, the reserve cost and the loss size are placeholders until debt terms and price series arrive.
Three ways it can sit in your structure
Why a lender can rely on the trigger
Attribution, read against Yarabamba
Which perils the trigger should watch on this ground, from the analysis.
Six data sets convert this preview into a debt-service view
The risk pages hand over the physical inputs, hectares per tier and loss bands. These attach responsAbility's own numbers to them.
DUE-DILIGENCE DELIVERABLES · ENVISIONED NEXT STEPS
What a full engagement adds, and what runs continuously after close: the starting point for the conversation, not a scope already fixed.
Site-visit plan, coast to up-valley
Data requests
What would move these numbers more than any further remote analysis.
EXTREME WEATHER · EL NIÑO SHOWCASE
We got curious about the region. The baseline had already moved.
ENFEN outlook, month by month
Niño 1+2 magnitude probability · Comunicado Oficial 15-2026, 28 Aug 2026
Summer magnitude · Dec 26 – Mar 27
Probability by category, Niño 1+2. The scenario lens reads from these.
Rainfall per year, and the 2026-27 scenario
El Niño seasons on this ground
Sep–Apr of each season over the lots. The classic events did not cross the line; the stress days belong to the recent seasons, on a warmer baseline.
All 44 seasons, ranked
Heat and rain anomaly index, 1981–2025. The historical events surface on their own and split into two regimes.